Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 35.903108 38.939212 42.259333 46.187195 50.743853 55.909742 62.277011
2025-03-30 31.251531 35.234649 39.886250 45.815774 53.321074 62.724247 75.782073
2025-04-06 28.366796 32.743423 38.067091 45.189967 54.759130 67.651281 87.310700
2025-04-13 25.875579 30.349826 35.947494 43.699518 54.581898 70.088895 95.622523
2025-04-20 24.985580 29.818886 36.055371 45.034036 58.300565 78.538923 115.341870
2025-04-27 24.164635 29.268471 36.031688 46.109179 61.713974 87.127496 138.308246
2025-05-04 23.306210 28.577461 35.720425 46.682715 64.377125 94.988641 163.204614
2025-05-11 22.263649 27.549974 34.834719 46.270193 65.339929 99.996031 184.332164
2025-05-18 21.261577 26.508587 33.840401 45.570385 65.685678 103.870019 204.792028
2025-05-25 20.300217 25.465992 32.767241 44.634289 65.471871 106.555905 223.700327
2025-06-01 19.448973 24.533317 31.794045 43.766682 65.256082 109.180619 244.310692
2025-06-08 18.585153 23.540827 30.672923 42.562768 64.266363 109.902196 259.357244
2025-06-15 18.413276 23.562713 31.118017 44.065361 68.746534 124.705766 344.306698
2025-06-22 17.829170 22.951881 30.553747 43.797143 69.721109 131.391358 406.516740
2025-06-29 17.222376 22.276892 29.846283 43.210616 69.950336 136.214734 469.097103
2025-07-06 16.486444 21.377874 28.737882 41.823916 68.312375 135.422563 496.471957
2025-07-13 16.358371 21.386694 29.073197 43.065880 72.537467 153.290466 723.842984
2025-07-20 16.184662 21.315071 29.269689 44.065280 76.408412 172.146599 1113.493539
2025-07-27 15.930351 21.105893 29.224524 44.597978 79.285826 189.313423 1766.549308
2025-08-03 15.524093 20.642870 28.730061 44.214859 79.858868 198.159400 2518.064809
2025-08-10 15.094159 20.127339 28.123053 43.564576 79.668731 203.942138 3532.751480
2025-08-17 14.649203 19.573881 27.428687 42.694026 78.802352 206.569781 4779.767871
2025-08-24 14.237777 19.061415 26.784813 41.886445 78.012793 209.391885 6928.727030